By the Associated Press
4/21/2008
Before Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama seized the Indiana political stage a month ago, the last time a Democratic presidential candidate had made news in the state came in 1996.
That's only because a speaker stand fell and hurt a dozen people shortly before President Bill Clinton arrived in Michigan City as part of a train trip to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
The Republican grip on Indiana's electoral votes has been so tight for so long that many in the GOP profess no preference for whether Clinton or Obama wins the Democratic nomination. They also say that despite the front-page headlines and hours of television coverage the Clinton-Obama race have generated in the state, they have no worries about John McCain carrying Indiana come November.
"My hope is, more than anything, that Hillary stays in the race until the last second possible," said state Rep. Jackie Walorski, R-Lakeville. "I hope they beat the daylights out of each other, they split the Democratic Party to where they can't stand each other after the primary and McCain wins by default."
The Democratic nominee could have the biggest Indiana influence in the hotly contested 9th Congressional District - where Democrat Baron Hill and Republican Mike Sodrel are likely to face each other for the fourth consecutive election.
Sodrel won the seat in 2004 as President Bush carried the district in a landslide but lost it during the 2006 Bush backlash. Sodrel says, though, that he doesn't agree with those who believe a Clinton nomination would bring out conservatives in droves to vote against her.
"I tend to believe that there's not much difference," Sodrel said. "I know a lot of people would argue that position, but I just don't think there's a lot of difference in which candidate is nominated on the Democratic side."
If Obama is atop the Democratic ticket in November, that could spark greater turnout in Monroe County, which is home to Bloomington and Indiana University's main campus, and hurt Sodrel's prospects, said former state Republican chairman Rex Early.
"When Monroe County has a big vote, Mike loses. When they have a smaller vote, he wins," Early said. "Obama's going to have a strong showing around the university, with the professors and the students. I think Hillary would be a much better candidate as far as Sodrel running."
Political science professor William Kubik, who teaches at Hanover College near Madison in the 9th District, says that even statewide he believes a Clinton nomination would boost Republican turnout.
"I think you'd have Republicans who otherwise might think about not coming out, as they did in 2006, coming out just to vote against Hillary Clinton," Kubik said. "She just became this sort of poster girl for liberalism and everything they that they think is wrong with that."
Both Obama and Clinton are set for more campaign swings across Indiana following Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary. Polls have split on which candidate is leading among Hoosier voters going into the state's May 6 primary, which has 72 pledged delegates at stake.
Joe Hogsett, the former Indiana secretary of state who is co-chairman of Clinton's Indiana campaign, dismisses arguments that Clinton would hurt state Democrats in the fall election.
"To the extent that there are Republicans who would rather see Hillary Clinton be our nominee than her opponent, I would invite those people to vote for Senator Clinton in this year's Democratic presidential primary," Hogsett said. "The Republican base is going to come out to vote for their candidate, without question. I truly believe that argument they are offering is false."
No Democratic presidential nominee has won Indiana since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Hogsett acknowledges it would be difficult for either Democrat to defeat McCain in the state.
State Republican Chairman Murray Clark goes further, saying he believes that Indiana conservatives will be motivated in November both to vote against the positions of either Clinton or Obama and to support McCain.
"I think he will be a good, strong candidate," Clark said of McCain. "The contrast is very clear and will be starkly evident between Senator McCain and their two candidates."
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