Economists Predict Another Year Of Slow Economic Growth
Jerry Conover (Photo courtesy Indiana Business Research Center)
It's only a prediction, but most economists at I.U. expect another year of slow economic growth in 2013.
The annual forecast from economists at I.U.'s Kelley School of Business says many things could alter economic growth next year, especially what so many politicians refer to as the "fiscal cliff", a combination of tax increases and spending cuts by the federal government that automatically take effect unless Congress approves a plan to move toward a balanced budget by the end of this year.
The panel expects the national economy to grow by about 2.5 percent next year, and they say that will only happen if Washington approves a budget deal. While this would be better than the 1.7 percent growth so far this year, the I.U. economists say it would not be enough to make a dent in unemployment.
The Indiana employment story has been somewhat better than expected. Jerry Conover, director of the Indiana Business Research Center, said the state's economic recovery made notable progress in 2012.
"This is a more appealing picture than we painted last year for Indiana, and for the year ahead our forecast calls for sustained growth -- payroll job growth of more than 50,000 jobs in 2013," he added. "At this rate, we're still about two years away from our pre-recession employment level."
Real personal incomes in Indiana will rise a bit less than 2 percent in 2013, with per capita incomes growing by about $1,500. The state's overall economic output will grow by about 2.3 percent, comparable to the national rate.
The panel released its forecast Thursday morning at the Columbia Club in Indianapolis and also at Indiana Memorial Union in Bloomington. It also will present national, state and local economic forecasts in eight other cities across the state through Nov. 20.