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How is this for political irony?  The same week that Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett announced his re-election bid, Josh Minkler, the U.S. Attorney for Indiana’s Southern District put out a news release announcing a new partnership with Anderson University because violent crime in the city has reached “astronomical levels.”

That dichotomy symbolizes this year’s race.  While Hogsett is a very likable and personable individual (I did the polling in October to back up that claim) his overall record, particularly on the crime issue, is going to be his biggest challenge.

When Hogsett first ran in 2015, he touted his service as U.S. Attorney, and he would bring those skills into the local crime-fighting arena.  You might recall he touted going after gun crimes and child pornographers. Some of you might even remember the day the U.S. Attorney’s office conducted a “raid” on city hall going after documents involving the Land Bank scandal which resulted in at least three convictions.

Since getting elected in 2015, Indianapolis’ murder rate has only gone up and each new murder record ends up being broken the following year and we are on track to break another record.  For example, at the end of Hogsett’s first year in office, the city saw a record 144 murders, last year we had 156 murders and by my last count, as I write this we are at the 149/150 range and could easily hit 160 by the end of the year, which would be the highest in the city’s history.

Now in its defense, the Hogsett administration will argue the following:  the rise in murders began before they got here, they’ve put more police on streets, its put more money into crime prevention, and they’ve created their own anti-violence initiative.  And it would be correct.

Now here’s the rebuttal.

Yes, the crime trends were going up before they took over, which means they had full knowledge of what was happening and should have been ready to act on day one.  Second, yes they are increasing the number of officers on the force with expanded recruit classes, but it takes about 18 months for a new recruit to hit the streets, so it will be a while before those new officers have an impact.  Third, yes more dollars have been put into crime prevention, but you wouldn’t know it by the increase in the murder rate. And fourth, the city has begun its “Peacemakers” initiative, but once again, if the city is making progress in these areas, why do we keep seeing an increase in the murders?

Will another year of record murders be enough to deny Hogsett a second-term?  It depends. Like any campaign, there are a variety of factors: will there be a viable challenger, does the murder rate go up again, what happens with the economy, what will that random factor be that no one can see coming that could have an impact, etc.   Hogsett has about $2.5 million in the bank so a lot of money can go along way to helping mitigate this stuff, but if the Mayor is going to run on his record regarding crime, I would politely and respectfully suggest he spend his millions on another message.

Photo:  Abdul/Indy Politics